{"id":31423,"date":"2025-10-21T08:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-21T08:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/leadersinsport.com\/performance-institute\/?post_type=article&p=31423"},"modified":"2026-01-29T10:08:30","modified_gmt":"2026-01-29T10:08:30","slug":"what-behavioural-finance-teaches-us-about-bad-decision-making-in-golf","status":"publish","type":"article","link":"https:\/\/leadersinsport.com\/performance-institute\/articles\/what-behavioural-finance-teaches-us-about-bad-decision-making-in-golf\/","title":{"rendered":"What Behavioural Finance Teaches us about (Bad) Decision Making in Golf"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n
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\n 21 Oct 2025 <\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>Articles<\/a>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t

What Behavioural Finance Teaches us about (Bad) Decision Making in Golf<\/h1>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n \n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Category<\/div>\n Coaching & Development<\/a>, Human Performance<\/a> <\/div>\n
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https:\/\/leadersinsport.com\/performance-institute\/articles\/what-behavioural-finance-teaches-us-about-bad-decision-making-in-golf\/<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n\n\n
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As behavioural finance specialist Dr Benjamin Kelly explains, these four common biases can derail even the best players.<\/p>\n \n \n \n

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By Dr Benjamin Kelly<\/h6>\n
In professional golf, where margins are razor-thin and pressure is immense, success hinges not just on physical prowess but on decision-making under duress.<\/h6>\n

While technical skill and conditioning are paramount, behavioural biases frequently derail even the most talented players. For leaders in sports, understanding these cognitive shortcuts and emotional responses is crucial for optimising athlete performance, coaching strategies, and mental resilience.<\/p>\n

I believe that golf, much like financial markets, is fertile ground for behavioural finance \u2013 a field integrating psychology and economics to explain irrational decisions. While behavioural finance has profoundly reshaped our understanding of investment behaviour, its application to sports decision-making, particularly in golf, remains remarkably underexplored. This is a significant oversight, as the very same biases impacting trading decisions equally affect decision-making on the golf course.<\/p>\n

By examining cognitive shortcuts and emotional responses that derail golfers, we uncover profound lessons applicable to high-pressure environments across sports and business.<\/p>\n

My work with investors has consistently demonstrated that reducing \u2018bad decisions\u2019 incrementally improves investment returns. This same principle applies directly to golf: eliminating poor choices on the course directly translates to saving shots and enhancing performance.<\/p>\n

Overcoming behavioural biases is notoriously difficult; our innate cognitive architecture makes us highly susceptible. Therefore, the optimal path to mitigation is not to fight the bias directly, but to create a step in the process that prevents us from succumbing to it. In trading, a simple yet powerful example is the stop-loss order \u2013 a pre-defined instruction to exit a position if it falls to a certain price, removing emotional discretion from a critical decision.<\/p>\n

This methodology, involving structured interventions, is evolving for golfers of all abilities.<\/p>\n

Below, I illustrate these points with compelling examples, including Robert MacIntyre\u2019s dramatic final round at the 2025 BMW Championship, and propose actionable strategies for correction.<\/p>\n

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  1. The pain of losing: loss aversion and the \u2018choke\u2019 phenomenon<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Loss aversion describes our innate tendency to prefer avoiding losses over acquiring equivalent gains; the psychological pain of a loss is often twice as powerful as the pleasure of a gain. In golf, this bias is a primary contributor to the dreaded \u2018choke\u2019 phenomenon, particularly when a player holds a significant lead. The shift from playing to win to playing not to lose is a classic manifestation. It leads to tentative play and costly errors.<\/p>\n

    Consider the \u2018final day phenomenon\u2019 in golf, where approximately two-thirds of leading players fail to convert their lead into a win on the final day of a tournament. This represents a conversion rate of roughly 33%. My work with investors has consistently shown that even a modest improvement in decision-making, leading to an increase in success rates from 33% to 45%, can yield material benefits. For a professional golfer, this translates directly into more career victories and significant financial gains. For investors, it means incrementally improved returns and enhanced portfolio performance. This isn\u2019t a sudden decline in skill; it\u2019s a psychological battle. A player leading a tournament, especially on the back nine, often shifts from an aggressive, winning mindset to a conservative, loss-averse one. Instead of continuing the attacking golf that built their lead, they focus on not making mistakes, which leads to tentative swings, reduced pace, and increased unforced errors. The fear of losing the lead becomes more potent than the desire to win. It paralyses their natural game.<\/p>\n

    Robert MacIntyre at the 2025 BMW Championship provides a vivid illustration. MacIntyre entered the final round with a commanding four-shot lead, having played exceptional golf through the first three rounds (carding 62, 64 and 68 for an average of 64.67 shots). However, in the final round, under immense pressure and with a significant lead to protect, he shot a 73 \u2013 eight shots worse than his average for the preceding rounds. This stark difference, which ultimately saw him lose the tournament to Scottie Scheffler, is a textbook example of loss aversion in action. The desire to protect the lead likely led to a more cautious, less assertive approach, resulting in a performance significantly below his demonstrated capability. His post-round comments when he expressed a desire to \u201csmash up my golf clubs,\u201d underscored the emotional toll of such a collapse, which was rooted in the psychological pain of losing what felt like an assured victory.<\/p>\n

    Correction strategy: process-oriented thinking and positive aggression<\/strong><\/p>\n

    Mitigating loss aversion requires a conscious shift from outcome-oriented to process-oriented thinking. Golfers should:<\/p>\n

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    • Concentrate solely on the mechanics and execution of the current shot<\/strong>. Treat each as an independent event rather than dwelling on the score or the implications of the outcome.<\/li>\n
    • Employ positive affirmations and visualise successful execution<\/strong>. This can help to counteract negative self-talk.<\/li>\n
    • Recognise that in situations where a conservative play is tempting but suboptimal<\/strong> (e.g., a short putt on a downhill slope), pre-committing to a firm, aggressive stroke can prevent the tentative actions often born of fear<\/strong>. For MacIntyre, a pre-defined strategy to maintain his aggressive, attacking style, regardless of his lead, might have yielded a different outcome<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      My methodology, applied to investment, focuses on establishing clear, unemotional exit strategies to prevent such value traps, which directly improves returns by eliminating these \u2018bad decisions\u2019. <\/strong><\/p>\n

      \"\"

      A victorious Scottie Scheffler shakes hands with Robert MacIntyre at the BMW Championship 2025 at Caves Valley Golf Club. (Photo: Kevin C Cox\/Getty Images)<\/p><\/div>\n

      This translates to a pre-shot checklist that includes a deliberate assessment of risk vs reward. This ensures the chosen shot aligns with a pre-determined strategy rather than emotional impulse.<\/p>\n

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      1. The illusion of control: overconfidence on the green<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        Overconfidence bias is the tendency to overestimate one\u2019s abilities, knowledge, and the accuracy of one\u2019s predictions. In golf, this often manifests as the infamous \u201chero shot\u201d syndrome. Picture a golfer, slightly out of position after a wayward drive, facing a daunting carry over water or a dense thicket of trees to reach the green. A more prudent strategy might involve laying up, accepting a bogey or par. However, the overconfident golfer, convinced of their exceptional skill or believing this is their moment of glory, attempts the low-percentage, high-risk shot. The result is often disastrous: a ball splashed into the water, lost in the woods, or a double bogey that unravels a promising round.<\/p>\n

        Three-time major champion P\u00e1draig Harrington has openly confessed that overconfidence cost him dearly at the 2025 Senior PGA Championship, particularly on a crucial 15th hole. Despite his vast experience, he felt his confidence and arrogance led him to an ill-advised approach shot, costing him a crucial hole. This mirrors countless amateur golfers who, after a few good shots, attempt to carry a 200-yard water hazard with a 3-wood, only to find their ball sinking to the bottom, convinced their recent success grants them an infallible touch. The allure of the \u2018hero shot\u2019 often blinds players to the higher probability of failure, driven by an inflated sense of their current capability.<\/p>\n

        Correction strategy: objective risk assessment and pre-shot routines<\/strong><\/p>\n

        To counteract overconfidence, golfers must:<\/p>\n

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        • Cultivate a rigorous pre-shot routine and an objective risk assessment process<\/strong>.<\/li>\n
        • Have a standardised sequence of actions before every shot<\/strong> \u2013 assessing the lie, wind, and distance; visualising the desired outcome; taking a practise swing; and committing to a target. This acts as a mental anchor, grounding the player in the present and preventing impulsive decisions<\/strong>.<\/li>\n
        • Objectively evaluate the probability of success versus the cost of failure, using data rather than gut feeling<\/strong>, can guide players towards higher-percentage shots, even if they appear less heroic.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

          My investor checklists include a mandatory step for a \u2018devil\u2019s advocate\u2019 review of high-conviction trades, forcing a re-evaluation of assumptions<\/strong>. This translates to a \u2018reality check\u2019 step in their pre-shot routine, where they explicitly consider the worst-case scenario and whether the reward truly justifies the risk. This step prevents the overconfident \u2018hero shot\u2019.<\/p>\n

          \"\"

          P\u00e1draig Harrington at the 2025 BMW PGA Championship. (Photo: Andrew Redington\/Getty Images)<\/p><\/div>\n

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          1. Seeing what we want to see: confirmation bias<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

            Confirmation bias is the tendency to seek out, interpret, and remember information in a way that confirms one\u2019s pre-existing beliefs or hypotheses. On the golf course, this can lead to flawed self-assessment and persistent errors.<\/p>\n

            A golfer might believe their slice is due to an \u2018outside-in\u2019 swing path, and subsequently only notice instances where their swing appears to confirm this, ignoring other potential causes like an open clubface. This selective attention prevents them from accurately diagnosing and correcting the root cause of their swing fault. Similarly, a player might attribute a good shot to their skill and a bad shot to external factors (a bad bounce, a gust of wind), reinforcing a biased self-perception that hinders genuine improvement.<\/p>\n

            Correction strategy: objective data and external feedback<\/strong><\/p>\n

            To address confirmation bias, golfers should:<\/p>\n

              \n
            • Actively seek disconfirming evidence and diverse perspectives<\/strong>.<\/li>\n
            • Use shot-tracking technology (e.g., Trackman, Shot Scope) as it provides objective data on performance, revealing patterns and weaknesses that subjective perception might overlook or rationalise away<\/strong>.<\/li>\n
            • Engage in open dialogue with a caddy or coach, actively soliciting their unbiased opinion on club selection, strategy, or swing mechanics<\/strong>, can challenge pre-conceived notions and lead to more accurate self-assessment.<\/li>\n
            • Conduct a disciplined post-shot review, where the outcome is analysed objectively without immediate attribution<\/strong>. This is also vital.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

              My investor checklists mandate seeking out and documenting opposing viewpoints before making a significant investment<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

              This means a \u2018feedback loop\u2019 step where they actively solicit input from their caddy or playing partners on their swing or strategy, or review objective data from launch monitors,<\/strong> rather than relying solely on their internal, potentially biased, assessment.<\/p>\n

                \n
              1. The power of first impressions: anchoring<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                Anchoring bias occurs when individuals rely too heavily on an initial piece of information (the \u201canchor\u201d) when making decisions, even if that information is irrelevant. In golf, this can lead to rigid decision-making that fails to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\n

                A common scenario involves a golfer fixating on the yardage provided by a sprinkler head or a course guide at the start of a hole. This initial yardage becomes an anchor, making it difficult to adjust for dynamic factors like wind changes, elevation shifts, or a different pin position that emerges during the round. A player might stubbornly stick to a club choice based on the initial anchor, even when conditions clearly dictate a different approach, leading to shots that are consistently long or short.<\/p>\n

                Correction strategy: dynamic assessment and multiple data points<\/strong><\/p>\n

                Counteracting anchoring requires:<\/p>\n

                  \n
                • Dynamic assessment and the consideration of multiple data points<\/strong>.<\/li>\n
                • Golfers should continuously reassess conditions before each shot<\/strong>, rather than relying solely on initial perceptions.<\/li>\n
                • This means actively checking wind direction and strength, re-evaluating pin positions, and considering the exact lie of the ball<\/strong>. Instead of just the yardage from the sprinkler head, factors like temperature, humidity, and recent performance with a particular club should inform the decision.<\/li>\n
                • Consciously hitting a \u201creset\u201d button after a previous shot or hole,<\/strong> preventing that experience from anchoring subsequent decisions, is also crucial.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                  My investor checklists include a mandatory \u2018re-anchor\u2019 step, where all previous price points are deliberately ignored, and decisions are made solely on current fundamentals and future projections<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

                  For golfers, this translates to a \u2018situational awareness\u2019 step in their routine, where they consciously disregard previous hole outcomes or initial yardage markers, and instead focus on a fresh, comprehensive assessment of all current variables before committing to a shot.<\/p>\n

                  \"\"

                  Robert MacIntyre at the 2025 BMW PGA Championship. (Photo: Jasper Wax\/Getty Images)<\/p><\/div>\n

                  Conclusion: cultivating mental discipline for peak performance<\/strong><\/p>\n

                  Behavioural biases are an inherent part of human cognition, but their impact on the golf course need not be detrimental.<\/p>\n

                  By understanding how overconfidence, loss aversion, confirmation bias, and anchoring manifest, and by implementing structured strategies to counteract them, golfers can significantly enhance their decision-making capabilities. The journey to mastering the mental game of golf is one of continuous self-awareness, discipline, and a commitment to process over outcome.<\/p>\n

                  Just as my work helps investors reduce the incidence of \u201cbad decisions\u201d to incrementally improve returns, applying these behavioural finance principles to golf can directly lead to saving shots and elevating performance. The critical insight is that overcoming biases is extremely difficult; our innate cognitive architecture makes us highly susceptible.<\/p>\n

                  Therefore, the optimal path to mitigation is not to fight the bias directly, but to create a step in the process that prevents us from succumbing to it. This methodology, evolving from investment to the golf course, empowers athletes of all abilities to make optimal choices when it matters most.<\/p>\n

                  For sports leaders, fostering an environment that encourages objective self-assessment, embraces data-driven insights, and champions structured routines will be key to developing athletes who not only possess exceptional physical talent but also the mental fortitude to make optimal decisions when it matters most.<\/p>\n

                  This approach not only leads to more consistent performance but also a deeper, more rational engagement with the beautiful, challenging game of golf.<\/p>\n

                  Dr Benjamin Kelly advises investors and professional athletes on decision making strategies in high stakes environments. If you would like to speak to Benjamin about his work, please contact a member of the Leaders Performance Institute team.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n <\/div>\n

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