{"id":31653,"date":"2025-11-24T08:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-24T08:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/leadersinsport.com\/performance-institute\/?post_type=article&p=31653"},"modified":"2025-12-15T11:13:12","modified_gmt":"2025-12-15T11:13:12","slug":"the-leaders-paradox-the-closer-you-get-to-the-centre-of-a-complex-system-the-more-difficult-it-is-to-see-the-whole","status":"publish","type":"article","link":"https:\/\/leadersinsport.com\/performance-institute\/articles\/the-leaders-paradox-the-closer-you-get-to-the-centre-of-a-complex-system-the-more-difficult-it-is-to-see-the-whole\/","title":{"rendered":"The Leader\u2019s Paradox: the Closer you Get to the Centre of a Complex System, the More Difficult it Is to See the Whole"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n
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\n 24 Nov 2025 <\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>Articles<\/a>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t

The Leader\u2019s Paradox: the Closer you Get to the Centre of a Complex System, the More Difficult it Is to See the Whole<\/h1>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n \n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Category<\/div>\n Leadership & Culture<\/a> <\/div>\n
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https:\/\/leadersinsport.com\/performance-institute\/articles\/the-leaders-paradox-the-closer-you-get-to-the-centre-of-a-complex-system-the-more-difficult-it-is-to-see-the-whole\/<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n\n\n
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In the third part of his miniseries exploring complexity in sport, Everton\u2019s Head of Sport Science Jack Nayler explains the importance of a clear direction of travel and a solid, collective decision-making process.<\/p>\n \n \n \n

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By Jack Nayler<\/h6>\n
In part one of this series, we explored what complex environments are, and some of the hallmarks that define them<\/a>.<\/h6>\n

The second part looked further at the implications<\/a> for this in a sporting organisation, notably that complexity is fractal, exists at different levels, and that each person within the organisation will exert different levels of influence over the performance at any given moment.<\/p>\n

This brings us onto this third instalment, where I begin to look at what this means for those in leadership positions.<\/p>\n

Leadership in complexity requires you to have the humility to accept the ignorance of your position and the understanding that autocracy won\u2019t work. It is impossible to micro-manage every decision in the fast pace and short turnaround of games in a professional sports season. You will not be present to control every interaction that occurs and you will not possess all of the information available to make every decision.<\/p>\n

With the inherent fluctuations that occur in a complex environment, it is incumbent on the leaders to provide a framework within which everyone can operate as effectively as possible, in a transdisciplinary manner.<\/p>\n

I believe there are four pillars to this framework, that are characteristics of high-performing environments.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. A clear direction of travel<\/li>\n
  2. Solid collective decision-making processes<\/li>\n
  3. Processes robust to pressure<\/li>\n
  4. A culture of curiosity and learning<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Your role as a leader is to ensure that these are in place so your team operates as effectively as possible.<\/p>\n

    Below, I will run through the first two on that list. I will tackle the third and fourth pillars in another piece.<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. A clear direction of travel<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Previously we spoke about how in a game, the influence over performance grows or diminishes in relation a player\u2019s proximity to the ball, peaking whilst they are in possession. At the complexity scale of the wider organisation, this becomes the person (practitioner) stood in front of the player.<\/p>\n

      As a leader, whilst you may previously have had boots on the ground, chances are when stepping into a leadership role, your player-facing time has diminished. You are now generally removed by at least one, if not several degrees, from working directly with players.<\/p>\n

      The challenge you face is that the responsibility for the decisions taken around the athlete(s) is still ultimately yours and, as you rise higher, the difficulty factor of the decisions increases.<\/p>\n

      As your time with athletes diminishes, so does the amount of knowledge and information you have about them. There should be no way that a head of performance in an organisation has more ready information on an athlete than the therapist who has hands on that athlete daily. The paradox is that the closer you get to the centre of the complex system (the athlete), the more difficult it is to see the whole.<\/p>\n

      There is an Indian proverb about five blind men who are presented with a different part of an elephant, each perceives that they are touching a different object (e.g. the tail is a rope, the trunk a snake etc) because they have not been presented with the whole. The more reductionist we become in complexity, the narrower our focus, the more we are reducing our bandwidth and leaving ourselves open to larger errors.<\/p>\n

      Thus, your ability as a leader to frame the nature of the problem, provide an understanding of what the wider landscape looks like and cut through noise with your team is essential. This creates your direction of travel, a clear understanding around what you expect as a leader that frames the decisions made by your team on a daily basis. You may need to do this at larger scales (philosophy setting, season planning, game model development) as well as smaller scales (planning end stage rehab and return to performance, or where to place team meetings in the training week). Whatever the scale, you need to be able to provide a consistent thread of behaviour and values that will underpin how decisions are taken, and you need to do this regularly.<\/p>\n

      You also need to ensure that the vision you are setting fits the wider organisational goals. If necessary, this can be accompanied by some relevant key performance indicators (KPIs), but caution is advised. The aim of KPIs should be more of an outcome measure than a target in and of themselves. They should be the resultant of good practice, not become the embodiment of it. When numbers become targets, they can become a form of control placed on the complex system and, as per Goodhart’s law (1), can be gamed. A case in point is player availability. If the target is above a certain percentage availability for the team, it can lead to under-reporting by practitioners who do not want to negatively affect the standard by which performance is being assessed.<\/p>\n

      If the behaviours and values that underpin your vision can be co-created with your team, then the understanding and buy-in from the members of the team will be much greater. This will provide the basis for how your team will operate. This is less about the tacit knowledge in your team or the operational decisions that are being made (as these will be constantly adapting to the changing situation or player) but should include the values and behaviours the team want to exhibit and hold each other to. These are akin to the ‘why\u2019 in Simon Sinek\u2019s famed Golden Circle (2).<\/p>\n

      A clear vision with underpinning values set by the leader (with their team) creates a north star that will guide the decisions made by the team.<\/p>\n

        \n
      1. Solid collective decision-making processes<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        Even though cause-and-effect aren\u2019t obvious in complexity and there is a degree of uncertainty in every decision made, we should not become fatalistic about making decisions and leave them to chance. We can absolutely increase the quality of the decisions that we are making.<\/p>\n

        As a part of the complex system, you are inherent in the decision-making process, but as mentioned above, you often have less information than those you lead.<\/p>\n

        In a hierarchical command structure, it takes too long to gather all of the relevant information and pass it up the chain of command to make a decision that is then passed back down again. Remember that the more you try to control a complex system, the more you leave yourself open to bigger failures.<\/p>\n

        David Marquet is a retired US naval captain who illustrates this problem well in his book Turn the Ship Around (3). He describes how he was trained to command one class of submarine and, at the last minute, was switched to another ship of a different class (at the time, the worst-performing ship in the Navy). He decided what the crew needed was licking into shape with training.<\/p>\n

        On their first voyage, Captain Marquet gave an order that was passed down the chain of command to the sailor whose job it was to enact that order. When the action didn\u2019t happen, Marquet thought he had to gotten to the bottom of the problems that beset the boat. He marched over to the sailor demanding an explanation, and the sailor calmly informed him that what he had ordered wasn\u2019t possible on this class of submarine. Marquet didn\u2019t know what he didn\u2019t know.<\/p>\n

        His experience speaks to another truism of complex environments: there is always a gap between expectation and reality, it will never play out exactly as you think. Crucially, Marquet stepped into this gap; he learned from the experience and changed the command structure from top-down order to bottom-up intention. Sailors had to declare to their superior that they intended to carry out an action, and this was then either approved or denied. The boat went from worst to best-performing ship in the US Navy the following year.<\/p>\n

        General Stanley McChrystal recognised a similar challenge whilst commanding US forces during the Iraq War in 2003 (4). US forces were picking up suspected insurgents off the streets and taking them back to base for interrogation. The information gathered was assessed by analysts before leaders made decisions and then issued orders back down the chain of command. The trouble being that by the time it took to do this, the message had been passed around the insurgents’ network, which immediately went to ground.\u00a0 McChrystal recognised the complexity of the situation and pushed decision making closer to the centre of the action on the front line. He trained troops to be able to question insurgents on the street and empowered them to act on what they found. This is credited as a key tactical change that helped to swing the tide of the insurgency back in the favour of the US forces.<\/p>\n

        Accepting then that in complex environments, we need to empower those in our team to make to make decisions, the most obvious way to improve decision making is to hire the best skillsets available to you. The art comes in blending these skillsets and setting them up to make good decisions.<\/p>\n

        As each person in the staff is their own complex mix of upbringing, education, skillset and experience, all may have a different viewpoint on the same set of information. Played correctly however, this is a value-add and is a key part of why diversity within your team is beneficial, each person will see things others cannot (5). Leading means you need to be able to synthesise what others are seeing and hearing and bring that together in a coherent decision.<\/p>\n

        There can be a temptation (which I have fallen for) to think you need to gather as many people\/opinions together as possible when making decisions, allowing everyone in the team the opportunity to contribute. In fact, there is a limit beyond which the quality of decision-making drops. As the number of people involved in the process increases, there can be a reduction in the trust that the group members have in each other. This reduces psychological safety, and you lose agility.<\/p>\n

        For the kind of agile decision making necessary in and around a heavy fixture schedule, quality discourse will begin to reduce with as little as 5 people involved in the decision (6). A key task for the leader therefore is to figure out what the key decisions are that need to be made, and then set their team up accordingly, with the appropriate individuals correctly assigned.<\/p>\n

        Once you have your best people in place to make decisions, the next step is to ensure they are set up for success. Whilst we want people to bring all of their experience to bear on the decisions being made, we also need these to be informed by the available evidence. We should be collecting data and turning this into information (visualising it) so that the team members can then begin to process the evidence and reflect on it in relation to their existing knowledge. (I will describe this process\u00a0 in more detail in part four).<\/p>\n

        Leaders need to check and challenge the decision-making process effectively. They should ensure that those involved have all had the chance to contribute, check that the team have used the available evidence and provide the greater context held, if appropriate.<\/p>\n

        Also crucial is to break an impasse when it occurs, you hold the casting vote. As the leader, the more difficult decisions will be yours to make when they are beyond the scope of your team (who can help advise). You may well be in your position due to your greater level of experience. Your team will expect you to bring all this to bear when influencing the final decision that is being made. Whilst not everyone will agree with the final decision, ensuring the relevant people have had the chance to contribute and then explaining your decision will help to unite everyone behind a course of action.<\/p>\n

        Disagreeing and committing is a key skill for high performing teams, particularly when the stakes are high.<\/p>\n

        Future thinking<\/strong><\/p>\n

          \n
        • How are you able to cut through the noise to create clarity for your team in a complex environment?<\/li>\n
        • Are you able to remain consistent in your convictions?<\/li>\n
        • How able are you to let go of decisions and instead empower your team to make better ones?<\/li>\n
        • What information do you possess as a leader that you can share with your team to help inform their decisions making?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

          In the fourth and final part, I shall explore the remaining pillars: processes robust to pressure and a culture of curiosity and learning.<\/p>\n

          References<\/strong><\/p>\n

            \n
          1. Goodhart, C.A.E., 1975. Monetary Relationships: A View from Threadneedle Street<\/em>. In: Reserve Bank of Australia, Papers in Monetary Economics, Volume I. Sydney: Reserve Bank of Australia.<\/li>\n
          2. Sinek, S., 2009. Start With Why: How great leaders inspire everyone to take action<\/em>. London: Penguin.<\/li>\n
          3. Marquet, L.\u202f, 2012. Turn the Ship Around! A True Story of Turning Followers into Leaders<\/em>. New York: Portfolio Penguin.<\/li>\n
          4. McChrystal, S.A., Silverman, D., Collins, T. & Fussell, C., 2015. Team of Teams: New Rules of Engagement for a Complex World.<\/em> London: Portfolio Penguin<\/li>\n
          5. Syed, M., 2019. Rebel Ideas: The Power of Diverse Thinking<\/em>. London: John Murray.<\/li>\n
          6. Camilleri, T., Rockey, S. & Dunbar, R., 2023. The Social Brain: The psychology of successful groups<\/em>. London: Cornerstone Press.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/p>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n <\/div>\n
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